The Fed. did surprise the investment world with its .50 rate cut last week. The reason we are in the mess we are in is low interest rates, so could someone please explain to me how lowering rates is going to fix this problem? The FOMC is supposed to be primarily concerned with inflation. Gold […]
Cocoa has seen a long term up trend for all of 2007. In just the last few weeks we have seen a nice pullback in this rally and we are using this pullback to reposition ourselves long this market. Technically we have just gotten a strong buy signal from the Williams %R indicator show in […]
Bonds have seen a tremendous rally in the last few weeks on the idea that the Fed would enter into a new rate cutting mode. We will find out on the 18th of September it that in fact is true. Either way we feel bonds have gotten ahead of themselves and should see a pull […]
All eyes are on Bernanke and company between now and the 18th. The markets have all priced in a rate cut as a sure thing. If the Fed now fails to deliver, watch out. We continue to be cautious ahead of this meeting a Bernanke is still a largely unknown quantity. We feel that the […]
Energy Complex (NYMEX) Crude Oil: Crude oil did push back above 75 as we mentioned it would in the last issue. The daily chart could be forming a double top if resistance above 78 holds. Frankly we do not see that resistance holding in the near term. We see this market moving to test the […]
Coffee has been building a macro bull flag on the monthly charts for the last few years now. We are nearing the apex of this long term consolidating wedge which is often the time that a market breaks out. At the same time we just saw a very violent shake out last which also often […]
The theme for this week is corrective bounce and consolidation of all the wild moves we saw last week. Our models sow that this is just a correction within a bearish trend instead of a resumption of the bull trend so if you insist on buying these dips do so with caution. We will be […]
This week the entire world is watching to see if stock markets are able to regain there footing or if this really is the beginning of a bear market. We feel that this is the beginning of a bear market, our models have been calling for this, as we have mentioned in past issues. We […]
After a dramatic pullback off of new highs, the S&P 500 is now consolidating the gains made over the past few weeks. We continue to see signs of a pull back. We are not expecting an end of this rally just a normal correction within a larger bull market. We see a pullback of roughly […]
This week we saw CPI come out largely as expected. This really took the wind out of the sails of those who expected a rate hike or cut for that matter. We continue to argue that the FOMC will do nothing for the balance of the year as they still need more time for the […]
