US Treasury futures are lower for the third day running amid fresh signs of economic expansion, putting the yield of the benchmark 10-yr Notes on the cusp of rising above 3% for the first time in 2 years. According to ADP today the US added 176,000 jobs in August. A key gauge of the US […]
Since establishing an interim top this has been a one way trade since the beginning of May where the long end and short end of the curve has gotten hit. 30-yr bonds have depreciated 12%, 10-yr notes are lower by 7% and the March 16’ Eurodollar futures are lower by 1.3%. Lets quantify this…what are […]
Energy: Crude oil has gained the last six sessions lifting October futures to their highest close in 13’ as we are fast approaching the 12’ highs. I see little gas in the tank and have advised aggressive clients to establish bearish trade anticipating a trade back to the 50 day MA in the coming weeks, […]
Energy: I was looking for a rally to get short Crude oil again after exiting client’s bearish trades and the market delivered higher by 2.64% today. I did not catch the high today so clients that resold October futures are down on the futures leg. I opted to buy 1:1 September $105 calls against their […]
Energy: Today’s chart of the day was on Crude oil…give it a read. If we see follow through into next week it will confirm for the second time that $108 is stiff resistance. I am operating under the influence that is how we play out and this could drag futures under $100/barrel. As of this […]
Energy: Inside day in Crude oil closing out the week higher by 2.64%. We seem to be finding sellers between $106.50-107.00. Assuming this week an interim high was established a 50% Fibonacci retracement drags futures under $100/barrel. This week I had several energy trading ideas including today’s chart of the day. The general message was […]
Energy: All yesterday’s gains were given back in Crude oil today with losses of 1.75% putting prices under $92/barrel. The 50 day MA has capped upside the last two sessions and until July gets above $94 expect sideways to down action. Above $94 I am a lot friendlier. I continue to trade my bias on […]
Let’s check the scorecard. I penned a report on 3/27, just two months ago, titled “Interest Rates – A Ticking time bomb.” In this, I made the bold claim that a bearish play on the Eurodollar has the potential to be the biggest trade of my career. This is not a quick “in and out” […]
We all know the Fed has short-term rates pinned to the floor. So I’m not saying we’ll see rates surge higher anytime soon. And I don’t expect the FOMC will raise rates at its meeting next week. But even a minor adjustment higher in rates should make prices retreat enough for a trade. I think […]
