Donald John Trump was elected the 45th president of the USA holding 290 votes of the Electoral College against 228 earned by former Secretary of State Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton. In the popular vote the democratic candidate won by 668,273 votes, but Trump’s success to gain in key swing states took the majority of the […]
The day after tomorrow, Wednesday September 21st, the FOMC finishes its meeting and market participants see only a 20% chance of a hike to happen, according to Bloomberg. Several analysts share the opinion that a move before the US-presidential elections will not happen and the bets for a December increase of interest rates are fairly […]
Risk assets had a steep decline last Friday after a voting member of the FOMC commented that the economy could overheat if rates remain low. The fall came a day after ECB’s president disappointed the expectations for an extension of the bond buying program of the monetary authority, saying that the committee will study how […]
The European Central Bank left rates and its bond buying program unchanged, saying that it will consider adding stimulus later this year once it has a clear picture of the economic impact from the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Comments released last week from the director of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) saying “there […]
Weekly Coffee Perspective The marketplace has priced a FED lift off at the end of the FOMC meeting on December 16th, with the bets being bolder after the strong job creation number in November and the higher revision for the October data. In fact some analysts believe that the dollar has already accounted for two […]
BLAME THE DOLLAR AGAIN The US non-farm payroll data released on Friday beat all expectations with the creation of 271k posts during the month of October, taking the unemployment rate to 5%. Growth wage, smaller part-time workers and smaller under-unemployment figures have set the stage for the FOMC to increase interest rates on the December […]
The low for the S&P June future’s contract on April 14, 2014 was1803.50 and the high, seen on April 24, 2014 was 1882.50. That trading range will remain for the coming weeks unless either the upper or the lower levels are broken decisively. This week we will have a two-day FOMC meeting with no scheduled […]
DATA HIGHPOINTS FOR THE WEEK: — Australia Employment Data.. Bank of Japan rate meeting & announcement..US Treasury Auctions (3, 10, 30 years)..Japan Machinery Orders… US Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes release.. Eurozone, US PPI Data..USDA crop production data. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo earnings release on Friday before Market Open. Data in italics-high potential […]
Energy: July Crude oil held its 8 day MA on an inside day. I say lower from here but would only take small bets. My suggested play is short August futures and selling out of the money puts1:1. I’m only looking for $3-4 so if the market delivers cover. RBOB gave up 2% today failing […]
This is a trade on tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The overall market expects the Fed. to cut rates by .25 basis points tomorrow at 2:15 EST. Stocks and bonds have already priced this in. The key will be the guidance they give on future rate decisions. Frankly we expect that they will be forced to make […]
