Weakness in commodities what to do? Here are a few ideas…get short, exit longs or be prepared to buy from lower levels. We think Crude oil and the distillates have put an interim top and expect prices to fall back. We reserve the right to change our mind if September closes above $79.50. We expect […]
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Go with the Flow
If the dollar is moving south and the indices are moving north that is conducive for commodities to trend higher. Crude is above the trend line mentioned in yesterday’s blog higher by over 3% in today’s session. Not to mention a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart so yes folks it looks like higher […]
Investors risk appetite returns
As long as indices tread water or move higher money should flow back into commodities and out of Treasuries and the US dollar. Crude followed thru today and now has the 20 day MA in its sights. As we said yesterday as long as equities move higher we think we could see Crude appreciate $3-5 […]
Fireworks in the Markets
Very suitable fireworks in the markets as we celebrate our Independence. Be safe we will be back Tuesday…enjoy your long weekend. We feel oil could have another 3-4% downside at the most before we get a bounce higher. As we voiced in recent posts we expect the $70 level to act as solid support in […]
China Move – a potential game changer
After making a new high Crude failed and closed almost $2 off its’ intra-day high. We suggest exiting all remaining longs as we suspect a set back. We anticipate a challenge of at least the 20 day MA; in August that level is $75.15. We’re not suggesting getting short but rather moving to the sidelines. […]
Strong Finish
Based on the late action we should see indices lead us higher next week. After an 8% rally in the previous four sessions Crude gave back some of its gain today closing down just over $1. The 9 day MA did hold and as long as that level supports we think higher ground ahead. That […]
Trade off the Indices
To me virtually everything is trading of the indices so look to the equity market for guidance and positioning. Crude was higher but I’m not convinced the damage is done just yet. If the 9 day crosses the 20 day which would mean prices would be $1 higher in futures I will likely get clients […]
Don’t be Standard and Poor
Oil gained virtually 4% today and is $4 off its lows yesterday. As soon as we get thru the 9 day MA we expect to see more buying; that level is just above today’s high. From here we see a grind higher to $76/barrel. That being said we expect heating oil and RBOB to trade […]
Markets Settle In
The markets have relaxed but as investors you must not. Their will be wild gyrations in the weeks to come so start thinking long and hard how you want to be positioned. At the moment $69 appears to be the line in the sand on front month Crude oil; July as of this post is […]
Separate yourself from the Crowd
What I’ve learned over the years is if I’m trading what most people are trading I’m probably losing money for clients so it is OK to be contrarian with some of your investment themes. On the lows today July Crude was just over $1 from its February lows closing below $74 today while June Crude […]