Tag: USDA
-
Reassessing Risks with the U.S. Dollar Strengthening
Donald John Trump was elected the 45th president of the USA holding 290 votes of the Electoral College against 228 earned by former Secretary of State Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton. In the popular vote the democratic candidate won by 668,273 votes, but Trump’s success to gain in key swing states took the majority of the…
-
To hike or not to hike, that is the Question
The day after tomorrow, Wednesday September 21st, the FOMC finishes its meeting and market participants see only a 20% chance of a hike to happen, according to Bloomberg. Several analysts share the opinion that a move before the US-presidential elections will not happen and the bets for a December increase of interest rates are fairly…
-
Origins Benefiting as their Currencies Slide
Risk assets had a steep decline last Friday after a voting member of the FOMC commented that the economy could overheat if rates remain low. The fall came a day after ECB’s president disappointed the expectations for an extension of the bond buying program of the monetary authority, saying that the committee will study how…
-
DXY, Weather and End of Strike Push Coffee Lower
The European Central Bank left rates and its bond buying program unchanged, saying that it will consider adding stimulus later this year once it has a clear picture of the economic impact from the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Comments released last week from the director of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) saying “there…
-
Fresh Fundamental News or More Fund Buying
The low yields of bonds, in fact negative for several sovereign ones in the developed World, made analysts and investors to jump on the stock markets with the argument that equities are relatively “cheap” considering the fixed-income returns. The indicator is not the most reliable one as Central Banks have “artificially” inflated the price of…
-
Coffee Makes New Highs
In the past eight years monetary-easing from major central banks have provided a long-put for investors that bet on risky assets. The “certainty” that more money would be pumped into the system so far made several liquidation of equity-markets a good buying opportunity – easy to say now. The last threatening event, Brexit vote,…
-
(NOT SO) United Kingdom Leaving
The surprising referendum that brought victory for pro-exit of the UK from the European Union took risk assets down and in two days erased the gains of the month and the 2 Q16. One day before the voting started to be counted equities rallied as polls indicated a slightly majority for the “remain” choice, kind…
-
Cotton – A Potential Sleeper
Since reaching a high just above 90 cents/lb. in mid-August cotton futures have been on a downward trajectory giving up nearly 15%. In the March contract futures have found a value zone just below 78 cents where futures currently sit. I am operating under the influence the current base being built over the last two…
-
Continue to short Eurodollars
Energy: I was looking for a rally to get short Crude oil again after exiting client’s bearish trades and the market delivered higher by 2.64% today. I did not catch the high today so clients that resold October futures are down on the futures leg. I opted to buy 1:1 September $105 calls against their…
-
Corn futures, Stock up on your Arepas
Living in Miami it’s sometimes hard to avoid the sweet smell of roasted corn. We have the Latin American community to thank for Arepas – a delicious snack made of melted cheese sandwiched between two corn patties, all sizzled to perfection on a street-side griddle. Of course, Miami’s Arepa purveyors don’t worry much about corn…