As a trader I am looking for Santa to bring me a better market... a more decisive trend , a clear buy or sell signal, more certainty...any or all of these I welcome with open arms. Crude closed lower this week making it three out of the last four weeks. We're operating under the influence that $101-102 will act as stiff resistance and prices will find their way to $93 in the coming weeks. Natural gas...the slump continues with a new low today giving up just over 3.5%. Some clients own a few months out but are feeling the heat. While we expect a bounce in the near future we wil be forced to cut losses if the depreciation continues.

Equities finished higher near the top of the recent trading range. As long as prices fail to make it to higher ground we likely are starting to roll over. 1300 in the S&P and 12300 in Dow should continue to act as resistance. The sideways action continues in both gold and silver with prices ending the week near the lower end of the recent trading ranges. The 10 day MA is capping further upside in gold while the 50 day MA acts as resistance in silver. We've been jumping back and forth from bullish to bearish but right now we say sidelines or short as our objective in gold is the low $1600′s and near $29 in silver...trade accordingly.

Some clients took their loss in the Yen today as we were unable to break back to the intervention levels from week's prior. There are no new trade recommendations in forex as we're getting mixed signals in most pairs. Lumber picked up 3% but all other softs were lower with cocoa and sugar hit the hardest losing 4%. Cocoa is lower by 30% in the last five weeks...not the right falling knife to catch but we've advised clients to step in with small positions. Being we're oversold on both daily and weekly charts we should be close to a turning point.

Treasuries remain dicey going back and for the between buy and sell...stand clear for now. Still waiting for a higher short entry in Euro-dollars which may be coming as we're approaching overbought levels. For the most part grains finished lower today on the heels of the USDA report with soybeans getting hit the hardest down 2.25%. We're far from bullish but expect grains to remain depressed with minimal upside in the coming weeks. Live cattle posted a six month low closing nearly 1% lower today. It has been a bloodbath of late with prices down 5% in the last two weeks. Momentum should carry prices lower yet...trade accordingly. The pressure remains on lean hogs as well giving up 1% to end the week near two month lows. Further downside should come immediately in my opinion.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Across my Reuters terminal today I thought I was seeing things with talk of deflation. Has anyone looked at longer term pricing on commodities say over the last ten years...Really? Crude will close lower by 2.5% today trading back near $90/barrel after being within spitting distance of $95 just yesterday. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement drags December Crude to $86.50 while a 50% retracement puts Crude at $84.50...trade accordingly. We are advising clients scaling into to bearish exposure. Both RBOB and heating should see further bouts of weakness as well into next week. Natural gas cannot get out of its own way as prices continue to dance around their contact lows. Wait for a settlement above $4 in December to gain long exposure. Stocks traded below their 9 day MA's but failed to penetrate that pivot point on a closing basis. This level has held for the last two weeks but we do expect a breach very soon.

A close below 1210 in the S&P and 11550 in the Dow should signal lower ground. We have lightly started to gain bearish exposure in ES put options with some clients targeting a move in the futures to 1180. Gold is above its 40 day MA for the first time since 9/22...what a wild ride as prices sold off nearly 15% and then proceeded to rally back 12% inside of one month. The physiological level of $1700 should now support with upside targets of $1740 and potentially $1770. Expect wild swings and our suggestion is purchasing options unless you can swallow the volatility. Silver was higher by 1% today briefly trading close to $34/ounce. As prices get out of their recent congestion area we see little upside resistance until $35/ounce...trade accordingly.

Aggressive clients can start to get short the European currencies with stops above the recent highs. Those long the Swissie should let go of their longs if we are not higher tomorrow. Our largest open currency position for clients exists in the Yen as we look to be put in an interim top. Our feel is we get a violent move to 1.2750 in the coming weeks...trade accordingly. Sugar gave up 2% today as prices were unable to hold onto the 100 day MA. Scale into short as a trade under 25 cents in the March contract is expected. Treasuries like equities are trying to make a decision on direction as sideways action continues. We have no open positions but favor a move to the upside in 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds. We view better risk/reward scenarios elsewhere so steer clear for now.

Corn is back below its 9 day MA for the first time in three weeks as this should be the beginning of the correction we've been looking for. As long as the 20 day MA caps any upside build bearish exposure. The 50 day MA has contained upside in January soybeans now for the last four sessions. If we do not see a trade above that level we may let go of client's soybean longs at loss...stay tuned. Live cattle broke down 1% today as prices approach three week lows. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement drags February back near $1.21 ...where longs would be back on our radar. Trail stops on your short lean hog futures or start working out of some of your put options booking profits. A near 5% deprecation in the last week should allow that.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Crude will close off its intra-day highs but the key will be if we can get a settlement above the 9 day MA; in August at $97.60. A trade above $99.50 we should hit out target of $102/103 shortly after. The immediate direction will likely be paved buy outside market influence i.e. equities and the dollar. We're suggesting buying dips and bullish exposure NOT selling rallies and bearish exposure. Day four of the natural gas acceleration as a rounding bottom is left in the rear view mirror all it would take is a bullish AGA tomorrow and we're off to the races. A 5% appreciation from current levels is our call. Two side trade in the indices as the 50 and 100 day MA's continue to serve as the pivot point. Coin toss we recommend the sidelines. The dollar clearly failed at 77.00 and while the 20 day MA supported today we're thinking a trade back under 75.00 in the coming weeks...trade accordingly. The Yen remains our pick of the litter and this bounce in commodities may allow clients to fight back in their Loonie call option trades...stay tuned.

Nothing to report in lean hogs or feeder cattle but we like bearish exposure in live cattle in either futures or options in October expecting to capitalize on a 2-4% depreciation. Gold printed a new records high today... clients were advised to lighten up and book profits on a portion of their bullish trades. Are we looking for more the answer is yes but $100/ounce in about a week may be too much too fast...trade accordingly. Silver gained 7% today..book partial profits as a $4/ounce move in two weeks has been nice but nothing goes up in a straight line. We will be buying dips in both metals for clients. Cocoa gained nearly 4% and another positive showing tomorrow and we will exit clients remaining longs. Sugar lost less than 1% but on a day almost all commodities appreciated significantly a close nearly 4% off its highs...maybe a blow off top? Some clients remain short looking for a big break. Cotton could be bought just as a trade as we should see a bounce from oversold levels. Our favored play is to wait for a bounce and sell from higher levels in the coming weeks. The appreciation in Ag's this week has been stellar but we advised longs in corn, wheat and soybeans to book profits today. We will stay the course in soybean oil and look to buy back in on the other products on a retracement. Off their lows corn has bounce d $1 bushel, soybeans 90 cents and CBOT wheat $1.25. All of these contracts when trading futures are $50/penny. Again in Treasuries we will likely be a seller from higher levels...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

It does not take much in the way of volume to move markets in thin trade so be careful. Wind was taken from the bulls sales in Crude this week as prices traded down to seven month lows. August Crude is finding buyers at $90/barrel but that level will need to hold or prices could see $85 in the coming weeks. Some clients are long from higher levels and I'm thinking we see $95 before $85. The distillates will need to bottom before we see any upside in Crude as well. That did not happen today with RBOB lower by 1.50% and heating oil down 0.50%. The last two occasions in the last three months natural gas was at current pricing it was a buy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Our suggestion is purchasing September bull call spreads.

Sloppy sideways action as of this post indices are almost at the exact point we started the week. Next week we will see if the 200 day MA can hold...if it does we may have some bullish trade recommendations. The dollar is approaching its highs on the week but we don't anticipate a trade north of 77.00...trade accordingly. The Loonie failed at the 20 day MA closing down nearly 1%, we suggest cutting losses on any long futures. Lean hogs have lost 3% in the last three sessions but we expect a trade down to the 20 day MA another 2%. We would like to see a 3-5% dip in live cattle before re-establishing longs for clients. Gold and silver gave up the ghost in the last two sessions with gold down over $50/ounce and silver giving back nearly $2/ounce. Some clients have light long exposure via options and are carrying a loss but for now we choose to stay the course.

Cocoa held the 20 day MA on today's pullback and in our eyes is still a buy. Sugar remains a sell though clients who are short are carrying a loss our target remains 23 cents/lb in October. On the week grains traded down but at these levels we feel longs should be scaled into with long exposure into next week's USDA. That goes for corn , soybeans and wheat. Our clients hold bullish positions in soybean oil and wheat and likely will be gaining some new crop corn exposure next week. Treasuries failed to breach the 20 day MA if this carries into next week clients will likely cut loses on their September bearish plays in 30-yr bonds. As for the short end of the curve prices have started to consolidate for what could be a leg lower...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Commodity traders should pay attention to any extremes in weather, too much or too little precipitation, too much or to little heat...any extreme. Crude is approaching three week lows down nearly 2.50% today as of this post. In the last five weeks Crude has been a buy at these levels but past performance is not indicative of future results. If July futures breach $96 on a closing basis next stop should be around $93/barrel. We advised clients to lighten up on longs and move to sidelines if profitable on Crude and/or the distillates. We will be looking for signs of an interim bottom and long entries...stay tuned. If Crude breaks down expect a 10-15 cent break in both heating oil and RBOB...trade accordingly.

Bearish engulfing candle in natural gas today with prices down 2.50%. A 50% Fibonacci retracement put the July contract at $4.45; our target. Indices will finish higher today for only the second day in the last nine trading days. On the daily chart prices appear overstretched and the bearish bias seems to be at an extreme so as a gamble traders could look to buy on weakness with tight stops. Our clients have no exposure at the moment. The dollar failed to get above the 20 day MA again today losing 0.38%. In currencies on our radar is selling rallies in the Swissie and buying dips in the Loonie.

A potential triple tip may have been made in lean hogs, tighten up stops on longs and if we fail to make a new high in the next few days book profits on longs if not already stopped out. Aggressive traders are advised to re-establish bullish positioning in live cattle. Traders could be in either August or December contracts. Minor chart damage in gold today with a close below the 20 day MA for the first time in nearly three weeks. We have a short term target of $1475/1485 in August. Aggressive traders bought July $1500 puts today with only two weeks time so be quick to take a profit or cut losses. Silver lost 4.25% today closing below the trend line that has held for nearly five months. The chart is ugly and we cannot rule out a quick trade to $33/ounce. We had previously advised buying under $35/ounce but think it was bad advice...we recommend the sidelines at the moment.

Cocoa remains on our buy list as we feel the recent action is a consolidation before another leg higher resumes...trade accordingly. Sugar is a sell as aggressive clients started scaling into October put options today. A retracement from overbought levels should drag prices 7-10% lower in the coming weeks. We are anticipating more weakness in grain complex in the immediate future positioning clients for a deeper trade lower in corn and soybeans and a marginal decrease in wheat. That being said aggressive traders could be short corn or short corn against a long in CBOT wheat 1:1. Treasury traders should have rolled to September contracts and be willing to cut their losses on new highs or add to their shorts on a confirmation of the much anticipated sell off. Currently some clients who are short via options are down on the trade in both 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

June live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday gapped lower on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh five-month low of $106.67 a hundredweight. Prices did manage to recover a bit by the close Tuesday and finished moderately lower and nearer the daily high. Price action this week has seen a bearish downside technical "breakout" from a recent sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. A six-week-old downtrend is also in place on the daily bar chart for June live cattle futures. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as the path of least resistance for prices is presently sideways to lower. The cattle market bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close June futures prices above solid technical resistance at the March low of $110.65. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at Tuesday's low of $106.67. First resistance for June live cattle futures is seen at $108.30, which is the top of Tuesday's downside price gap, and then at $109.00. First support is seen at $107.50 and then at $107.00. Stay tuned! Jim Wyckoff

Brace for the Fed as we expect it to be a market mover. Indecision in the oil market as prices close virtually unchanged today. If we fail to make a new contract high in the next few sessions we should resume the set back we've been forecasting, in June that would be a trade over $114.05. A settlement below the 20 day MA should confirm a move lower but before either scenario happens we're just guessing, that level is $108.90 in June WTI. We suggest the sidelines in natural gas willing to be a seller on a spike higher. We cut losses for clients that still held bear put spreads in the June ES; it resulted in a loss of approximately $400/per position including fees. Inside day in the dollar today which is far from a victory but the bleeding has subsided for now. We caution getting too bearish at these levels as a short squeeze is likely...in our opinion.

Lean hogs and live cattle are getting the correction we forecast last week. For now stand aside and look to re-establish longs from lower levels. Record highs in gold and silver as momentum lifts prices 0.25% and 2.0% higher respectively. For what its worth we think when a correction happens in gold and silver it will be violent! Preliminary signs of an interim top in silver today include a significant volume spike, failure to maintain at a record high and investor sentiment getting overly bullish. Aggressive traders opted to get slightly bearish silver today via July 1:2 ratio put spreads. On a trade through 24/cents in July sugar we will advise clients to book profits on their longs. Some clients opted to offset positions today at B/E.

On the move higher in agriculture today we advised clients to book profits on their soybean meal longs and to start getting short corn. We feel the July contract could break 40-55 cents lower in the coming weeks...trade accordingly. Fade this rally in the Treasury market as long as 30-yr bonds stay below 122'00 and 10-yr notes do not close above 121'00.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

April CME live cattle futures on Thursday gapped lower on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh four-week low. The cattle market bulls have faded badly recently as a four-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated and a three-week-old downtrend is now in place. The next downside price breakout objective for the cattle market bears is pushing and closing April futures prices below solid chart support at the January low of $109.87. A close below that key near-term technical level would produce more serious chart damage and then suggest a price move to strong technical support at the December low of $107.05. The live cattle futures market bulls would begin to gain fresh upside near-term technical momentum by producing a close back above chart resistance at $113.00. Near-term technical support for April live cattle futures is located at $110.00, at $109.80 and then at $109.50. Near-term resistance is seen at $111.10, at $111.50 and then at $112.00. Stay tuned!--Jim Wyckoff

February lean hog futures prices on Monday hit a fresh nearly four-month high of $80.50 per hundredweight as the hog market bulls have regained fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Futures prices are in a choppy, nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the rejuvenated hog market bulls is producing a close in February futures above strong chart resistance at the contract high of $81.35, scored in September of last year. On the downside, the bears would gain fresh near-term technical strength by pushing and closing February futures prices below strong chart support at last week's low of $77.25. Near-term technical resistance for February hogs is located at $80.00, at Tuesday's high of $80.35, at this week's high of $80.50 and then at $81.00. Near-term chart support is seen at $79.50, at $79.00, at $78.65, at $78.40 and then at $78.00. Stay tuned!--Jim Wyckoff

If the dollar is moving south and the indices are moving north that is conducive for commodities to trend higher. Crude is above the trend line mentioned in yesterday's blog higher by over 3% in today's session. Not to mention a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart so yes folks it looks like higher ground is in the future. Aggressive traders in futures should use $75.50 followed by $74.40 as support in August. A possible trade idea would be the October $80/85 call spread for $1700. Natural gas has lost ground for the last five days but $4.33 continues to support. Prices are starting to look over sold and we like purchasing 50 cent call spreads expecting a rebound in the coming weeks.

Indices domestically and abroad showed strength today rising 1.50-3% climbing to fresh highs. As of this post the S&P is above the 50 day MA and we've yet to get clients short. They are prepped and we expect to make a move this week or next; at the moment we are eyeing 75 point ES September put spreads and scaling short into futures for clients. We feel there is limited upside but an additional 3-4% is not out of the question.

We advised clients to take off more of their October sugar longs today thinking a correction may be in the immediate future. Sell a rally in cotton; we are selling above 77 for clients if given the opportunity. November lumber was higher by 3.20% today closing at $219; our target is $240-250. 30-yr bonds broke the 20 day MA trading down 0.70% as of this post. We're anticipating a trade down to the 40 day MA at 124′16 unless the equity rally is derailed. Continue to buy dips in December live cattle.

August gold traded up to but failed to close above the 50 day MA. On a settlement above $1218 we would be interested in gaining long exposure for clients. September silver was higher by 1.72% now approaching the 50 day MA. Most clients have bullish exposure either via September futures or December call spreads.

Corn was a loser again today; we see support in December at $3.77 followed by $3.70.
We suggest using the current pullback to be a buyer of December contracts. The dollar down equated to other currencies moving higher at least today. Clients are positioned to take advantage of a move to .9200 in the Swissie and 1.2300 in the Euro in the coming days to week.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.